In a tradition that was established in August, and has now grown to the point of being a dual blog event, I bring you Talkin’ Oscar with the Elder. The Elder in question is my brother Ryan, whose own blog McNutt Against the Music has been running strong since last summer, and between us we know a bit too much about Award shows. While I may have the edge in TV, we’re about even in terms of cinema, so it makes for an interesting battle.
In preparation for Tuesday morning’s Academy Awards Nominations (To be read @ 9:38am), we decided to chat about who we think will make the cut, and who will find themselves crying into their pillow tomorrow morning.
And now, in a brilliant piece of Crossblog Manipulation, here are the predictions. In order to see what Ryan predicted, head to his post in order to get the full details. Similarly, in order to see mine, you’ve got to be here on Cultural Learnings. It’s manipulativve, and I love it.
Without further ado, let’s Talk Oscar.
Ryan says:
Alright, so before we get to the categories, any thoughts on the “Oscar Race” in general this year?
Myles says:
Mostly from reading the buzz, and from following the various precursor awards, the story has been the inability of any film to rise above the others, and the striking ability for this to occur within the acting races.
Ryan says:
For me, I always find it weird how time and time again I get so easily caught up in the politics of it all. It’s really quite depressing when you look at it from a distance: it’s journalists not talking about whether or not a film is good, but whether or not it can win. While artistic quality matters somewhat, it’s held at an arbirary distance. It’s almost depressingly cynical at times….
Myles says:
There’s no question that this is the case, especially when it comes to the guilds and the critics, and their apparent differences in terms of logical thought patterns. And really, the biggest political aspect of the awards this year was the reality of the deadline. It resulted in films like “Children of Men” and “Pan’s Labyrinth” being too late in the season to be seen by enough voters.
Myles says:
Oh, and stop being so idealist. Pfft, quality? The Oscars have never quite been about quality, as much as we might consider them in that context purely for being superior to the Golden Globes. You’re dreaming.
Myles says:
It’s a nice dream, though.
Ryan says:
I’m not saying that I expect quality from the Oscars…but when so much of the campaign is influenced by journalists and writers, I wish more of them would take the opportunity they have and champion films that need/deserve the attention…i mean, how many “The Academy is going to LOVE Dreamgirls” articles do we need?
Myles says:
17, clearly.
Ryan says:
I guess it just bothers me that people like you and me, who haven’t even SEEN all of the movies in contention, can make damn good educated guesses as to how things are going to turn out on Oscar nomination morning
Myles says:
Meryl Streep hit on this in her Golden Globes speech, about a variety of foreign films that people deserve to see because they’re good. But, in the end, the people voting haven’t seen them. And, the people with this information, the educated “Oscar experts”, are indeed then in charge of making those educated guesses. And we as consumers of those experts can therefore make our own.
Animated Feature Film
Ryan says:
So let’s start at the bottom and work our way off. Unfortunately for everyone, due to Arthur and the Invisibles being disqualified, there wasn’t enough animated films in 2006 to allow for five nominees for Best Animated Feature.
Ryan says:
So since Cars and Happy Feet are a given, who’s the third?
Myles says:
Damn you, Freddie Highmore, for being human and not animated. You ruin everything yet again. And really, in terms of the third film, it’s a three-way race between Flushed Away, Monster House and Over the Hedge. All three received average reviews, with Monster House perhaps receiving the best, but Over the Hedge was a clear box office leader.
Ryan says:
Funny, because I actually am going with Flushed Away for my third choice, based purely on residual Wallace & Gromit love. It’s much more likely to be one of your choices (Monster House is my alternate), but hey, go big or go home.
Myles says:
I think it’s really an issue of what people are looking for in an animated film. Do they follow the pedigree (Aardman, creators of Flushed Away), the big business (Dreamworks’ Over the Hedge) or the ever-present title of Monster House’s “Executive Producer Steven Spielberg”? I’ve got Monster House, personally, they’ve got to get Spielberg in there somehow.
Ryan says:
that’s true, with Eastwood’s films falling out of the picture a bit (but we’ll get to that later). Onto Screenplays!
Myles’ Predictions for: Best Animated Feature Film
Cars
Happy Feet
Monster House
Alt. Over the Hedge
Best Original and Best Adapted Screenplays
Myles says:
The real story in terms of the Screenplay Awards is…well, there isn’t one. The Best Picture competitors are, as always, hugely influential in these categories, but there appears to be some spaces for smaller films that haven’t quite gained resounding Oscar attention. Specifically, Jason Reitman’s “Thank You For Smoking” and this fall’s “Stranger than Fiction”
Ryan says:
Yeah, and the occasional foreign film, which is why I’ve included Pedro Almodovar’s “Volver” in the original screenplay category. If you recall, the Oscars gave “Talk to Her” all sorts of love a few years ago, and I expect Screenplay will be where they recognize his work this year.
Myles says:
Funnily enough, I chose a different foreign film to feature in the category. It’s definitely my long shot of the night, but I chose Guillermo Del Toro’s “Pan’s Labyrinth” because I feel that if there’s any place where his film could get some attention it is with the Academy. It came late in the Awards season, and I guess I hold out hope it built some steam in the past month or so.
Myles says:
In terms of Adapted Screenplay, do you think that Dreamgirls might find itself out of a spot? I certainly have my doubts that it could be ignored, but stranger things have happened.
Ryan says:
Currently? I have Dreamgirls as my alternate for Adapted Screenplay. Keep that in mind as we move further through the categories.
Myles says:
I shall do so, because I happen to have it as the same. That being said, those further categories get much more interesting. Because, as we move into Supporting Actor and Actress, we’ve got two absolute front-runners and then a fairly sizable toss-up remaining.
Myles’ Predictions for: Original Screenplay
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
Babel
Stranger Than Fiction
Pan’s Labyrinth
Alt. United 93
Myles’ Predictions for: Adapted Screenplay
The Departed
Thank You for Smoking
Children of Men
Little Children
The Devil Wears Prada
Alt: Dreamgirls
Best Supporting Actress
Ryan says:
Well, everyone and their mother has Jennifer Hudson not only being nominated for Supporting Actress, but taking the damn statue home. I’m also going with a Babel double-shot with Kikuchi and Barraza, along with Cate Blanchett because, well, she’s Cate Blanchett.
Ryan says:
Do you think the young Ms. Breslin will be having a happy early morning?
Myles says:
Absolutely, she’s in the best position to take the 5th spot. Little Miss Sunshine is riding a wave of success, and her recent nomination from the Screen Actor’s Guild pretty much clinches it. And really, it’s well deserved, her performance in the film is stunning. But that being said, let’s not forget that she’s competing directly with her on-screen Mother, played by Toni Collette.
Ryan says:
I have Collette as my alternate, and would not be surprised in the least to see both Collette and Brelin show up in the category. It’s a shame that Steve Carrell won’t be getting any love, though, because Best Supporting Actor is already WAY too competitive for the five slots.
Myles’ Predictions for: Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Hudson – “Dreamgirls”
Abigail Breslin – “Little Miss Sunshine”
Cate Blanchett – “Notes on a Scandal”
Rinko Kikuchi – “Babel”
Adriana Barraza – “Babel”
Alt. Toni Collette – “Little Miss Sunshine”
Best Supporting Actor
Myles says:
Yep, there’s no question about it. Outside of Eddie Murphy, whose Globes win guarantees him a slot, everything else is just too open. When you’ve got like 5 Black Horses, you’ve got no room for someone like Carrell, especially when we have to consider he’s competing against his own co-star, Alan Arkin.
Ryan says:
And when you have a BP nominee with one of the most impressive all-male casts in years – that would be The Departed – there’s not much room to work with. While I currently only have Jack Nicholson turning up in the category, Mark Wahlberg is my alternate.
Myles says:
Although it goes against all Academy history, I’d like to see them look past perennial favourite Nicholson in favour of Wahlberg.
Myles says:
That said, as much as The Departed is a dominant force, there’s a couple of lesser knowns who have a fairly good shot of breaking into the Top 5 as well.
Ryan says:
That’s true, but I’m sticking with two more obvious choices for the last two slots: Djmon Honsou and Brad Pitt.
Myles says:
Oooh, some disagreement. I think that Pitt is too pretty, and lacks the hollywood clout, to pull another Clooney out of the bag, and that Honsou will be hurt somewhat by the recent de-Push of Blood Diamond in favour of The Departed from the DiCaprio camp.
Ryan says:
Who do you have instead?
Myles says:
Jackie Earle Haley may not be a name I’ve heard before, but with both Screenplay and Actress nominations likely, he might be able to ride the Little Children wave into the Supporting Actor race. And, similarly, Michael Sheen’s portrayal of Tony Blair should be able to ride The Queen’s recent success to a nomination.
Ryan says:
yeah I know I’m playing it safe, but I’ve got a couple of semi-risky picks to come.
Myles’ Predictions for: Best Supporting Actor
Eddie Murphy – “Dreamgirls”
Alan Arkin – “Little Miss Sunshine”
Jackie Earle Haley – “Little Children”
Mark Wahlberg – “The Departed”
Michael Sheen – “The Queen”
Alt. Jack Nicholson – “The Departed”
Best Actress
Ryan says:
yeah I know I’m playing it safe, but I’ve got a couple of semi-risky picks to come. So before we get to those, let’s get Best Actress out of the way. This is one category where it seems that every Oscar predictor has the exact same five: Cruz, Dench, Mirren, Streep, Winslet. Do you concur?
Myles says:
Yep. I didn’t even bother with an alternate.
Ryan says:
I did, and it’s Jennifer Hudson. I distinctly remember two years ago, where Clint Eastwood’s performance in Million Dollar Baby was completely off-the-radar (mostly kicking around in predictions for the supporting category) and then everyone got shocked Oscar nomination morning when he ended up nominated for Best Actor. It would not surprise me at all if the same thing happened with Hudson.
Ryan says:
That said, I’m still going with the predicted five.
Myles’ Predictions for: Best Actress
Helen Mirren – “The Queen”
Judi Dench – “Notes on a Scandal”
Meryl Streep – “The Devil Wears Prada”
Penelope Cruz – “Volver”
Kate Winslet – “Little Children”
Alt. Not Needed
Myles says:
Well, that’s certainly a dramatic pick, and I’m expecting that you’re hoping for another as we move to Best Actor. Because, unless I’m entirely off base, I am assuming that your list includes a certain resident of Kazahkstan.
Best Actor
Ryan says:
It does, but what really makes Best Actor the category most likely to disappoint Ryan tomorrow morning is who I’ve left off: Will Smith.
Myles says:
I think that if The Pursuit of Happyness had been a bit of a bust at the box office that would be realistic, but $130 Million later? He’s a lock.
Ryan says:
See, Best Actor is a weird category this year in that with the exception of Leo’s performance in The Departed, all of the performances are islands, alone in movies that are unlikely to get any other nominations tomorrow morning.
Myles says:
You’re right, Leo’s the only one with any sort of backing, and he’s technically in jeopardy if he splits votes with himself in Blood Diamond.
Ryan says:
And out of the three actors who I think have the best shot at getting those last two spots – Ryan Gosling, Will Smith and Sasha Baron Cohen – Smith makes the least sense to me, a performance in a movie that just seems out of place.
Ryan says:
In fact, he’s not even my alternate – I’m keeping the “gutsy” train rolling with Greg Kinnear as my backup choice.
Myles says:
I, alas, bumped Borat. *Ducks* I know it’s heresy, especially after my blog is named after the film, but I just don’t think the Academy will buy into it. I’ve kept Gosling and Smith, along with DiCaprio and the two individuals so guaranteed we haven’t even mentioned them: Forest Whitaker and Peter O’Toole.
Ryan says:
Yeah, to be honest, part of me is only keeping Cohen on there because, well, I can’t exactly go back on my prediction (link to blog post will go here) now can I? I have serious doubts he’ll appear, because of the way the Academy votes for nominations on a ranked ballot.
Ryan says:
The people most likely to get nominations are those who get a lot of #1 and #2 votes…and I think Cohen’s performance is the type that will all sorts of #3s, #4s and #5s, but not enough that will add up to a nomination.
Ryan says:
But I’m in far too deep to go back on my prediction right now…fingers crossed.
Myles says:
There’s that idealism again. What happened to the cynical Ryan we knew and loved?
Ryan says:
I assure you, he’ll be back at 9:40 a.m. AST tomorrow morning when it turns out just how wrong he was about Best Actor.
Myles’ Predictions for: Best Actor
Forest Whitaker – “The Last King of Scotland”
Peter O’Toole – “Venus”
Leonardo DiCaprio – “The Departed”
Will Smith – “The Pursuit of Happyness”
Ryan Gosling – “Half Nelson”
Alt: Sasha Baron Cohen – “Borat”
Best Director
Ryan says:
So onto Director. The general practice of modern Oscar history goes that Best Picture and Director rarely match up exactly, and usually there is at least one switch. Last year, however, they aligned perfectly. How’s your Director lineup looking?
Myles says:
Although many of the predictors have felt the need to do so here, I just can’t get behind the idea of nominating Valerie Dayton and Jonathan Faris for Little Miss Sunshine. There’s something about it that seems off to me, which is why I think there’s a 5th spot available for someone to sneak in and steal some thunder, whether it be an Amigo or someone like Paul Greengrass.
Ryan says:
So who’s your fifth?
Myles says:
Perhaps reflecting back to my Screenplay nod, I think back to a few years ago when City of God found its way into major categories. As a result, I’ve selected Guillermo Del Toro for “Pan’s Labyrinth”.
Ryan says:
While you can’t get over Dayon and Faris being nominated, I can’t possibly see them not: I think Sunshine is going to go over huge with the Academy, which is why I’ve already given them noms for screenplay, both supporting categories, and alternates in supporting actress and actor. This movie is going to be Tuesday morning’s big story, I’ve got a feeling.
Ryan says:
But I also didn’t go 5/5 with Best Picture. My oddball? I’m going to echo the DGA and cut Bill Condon for Dreamgirls, leaving old classic Clint Eastwood to pick up the fifth spot, the only non-technical love that will be shown towards Letters from Iwo Jima
Myles says:
It’s so funny, we don’t even consider cutting Stephen Frears even when The Queen is still lacking a big pre-cursor award in its favour. What is it about The Queen that has everyone standing behind it despite its lack of a shiny statue to parade about in commercials?
Ryan says:
Woah, timeout – i completely forgot that Condon WASN’T cut from the DGA.
Myles says:
I was kind of skeptical, personally…yeah, Condon missing out for Dreamgirls would be another Moulin Rouge/Luhrmann fiasco.
Ryan says:
But they DID have a Moulin Rouge/Luhrmann fiasco, didn’t they? Yeah, I’m going to stick with Condon for the cut. I have a feeling the Dreamgirls love is going to come up shorter than people think.
Ryan says:
As for Frears, well, it’s Capote all over again. He’ll get in.
Myles says:
Touché.
Myles’ Predictions for: Best Director
Martin Scorcese – “The Departed”
Bill Condon – “Dreamgirls”
Stephen Frears – “The Queen”
Alejandro González Iñárritu – “Babel”
Guillermo Del Toro – “Pan’s Labyrinth”
Alternate: Valerie Dayton/Jonathan Faris – “Little Miss Sunshine”
Myles says:
Well, then, considering your choice of Best Director Nominations, it appears that you’ve got no surprises on this, the final award of the evening?
Best Picture
Myles says:
(Director…I meant director)
Ryan says:
I, sadly, do not. It’s rare when the PGA and DGA – the two most reliable predictor awards – line up, and I find little reason to go against it. Babel, The Departed, Dreamgirls, Little Miss Sunshine, and the Queen. Do you concur?
Myles says:
There’s no reason not to. While I still think that there isn’t enough of a connection between the directors and the film with Little Miss Sunshine, there is a huge push for the film (Pun unintended, but it works). And the rest cover the bases: Large scale emotionally moving project, gritty ensemble drama, flashy musical, and a poignant portrayal of the world’s most famous royal family.
Myles says:
It’s a diverse, and pretty frackin’ wide open, Best Picture race.
Ryan says:
Who’s your alternate?
Myles says:
While I could go with Eastwood, I just feel that he’s not getting much love at this point. As a result, went with United 93, which lost its momentum but carried a few Critics’ awards.
Ryan says:
I’ve gone a bit sentimental, but it’s a film that I think if it had come out only a few weeks earlier could have been a serious contender this Oscar season: Alfonso Cuaron’s brilliant Children of Men (I also have Cuaron as my directing alternate). But alas, the film will likely end up with a few well-deserved technical nominations and that’s that.
Myles says:
It just came too late in the season to get a shot, but it definitely deserves it.
Ryan says:
Yeah…I would not be surprised to see either of the other two amigos to turn up in that fifth director spot, frankly.
Myles says:
I concur.
Myles’ Predictions for: Best Picture
The Queen
Babel
Little Miss Sunshine
Dreamgirls
The Departed
Alt. United 93
Ryan says:
But I concur…it’s a pretty wide-open Oscar race outside of the lead acting categories.
Myles says:
There’s no question that the Leads are decided, but there’s so much room to move elsewhere that it should make for an interesting morning, regardless of whether cynicism or idealism wins out.
Ryan says:
One last prediction: movie with the most nominations tomorrow morning?
Myles says:
Dreamgirls. Too much technical love and two guaranteed Supporting Nominations will result in enough support to overcome the Little Miss Sunshine train…barely.
Ryan says:
Really, it’s a toss-up: any of The Departed, Dreamgirls, Babel and Sunshine could end up with the most nominations, so it all comes down to technicals. I’m going with the Departed.
Ryan says:
Either way, we’ll see which wins out – cynicism or idealism – tomorrow morning.
Myles says:
Indeed we will.
Cultural Learnings 