Spider-Man 3: Box Office Predictions

Spider-Man 3 swings into the box office today…well, last night really, spreading a web of epic proportions with its over 4200 screens (An industry record). However, puns aside, how large will the film really be? The film doesn’t seem as necessary as Spider-Man 2 did, and the reviews are reflecting it: it’s sitting at a barely fresh 62% on Rotten Tomatoes (Compared to 90+ for Spidey 2), and is at 59 on Metacritic. While mediocre reviews certainly didn’t sink Jack Sparrow last summer, I don’t think that this sequel feels as urgent as even Dead Man’s Chest. Spider-Man has been a series that, while appealing to comic book fans, have also been widely respected as some of the best super hero films to date. And now, with that pedigree gone according to reviewers, will this film be unable to live up to its North American success?

My prediction?

Myles’ Spider-Man 3 Box Office Prediction

[Drumroll please…]

$134,427,814

Based on the international success thus far, the marketing steamroller has been effective enough to make for a big opening weekend tally. However, it should be known that my prediction has it falling short of Pirates 2’s opening weekend record. Still, it’s a huge opening that isn’t likely to be too dampened by the reviews. Any of the effects from those will be seen in the following weekends, especially when Shrek 3 opens in two week’s time.

What is everyone else predicting?

Box Office Guru – $140,000,000

Box Office Report – $145,000,000

Am I not giving it enough credit? Will fans turn out even without good reviews (They did go see X3, after all)? Is Venom enough of a draw to overcome the film’s problems? Only time will tell: specifically, mere hours from now when we get the results from the Midnight showings. I’ll update with that info when it comes in.