Team Gervais: Disinterested Predictions for the 2010 Golden Globes

I don’t think I have ever been more excited to watch the Golden Globes (Tonight at 8pm on NBC), and yet at the same time I don’t think I’ve ever been so disassociated from the actual nominees.

This likely sounds strange, but it’s true: while I have been reading about the Oscar race to some degree this year, for the most part it hasn’t caught my attention as it has in years past, and I’m not sure if I could tell you without referring to a list just who is up for one of those rather unattractive trophies this year. While I should never actually take the Golden Globes seriously, especially on the television side where they simultaneously fetishize the new and combine the supporting categories together without any semblance of logic, I usually pay more attention than I have this year.

I think the reason for this is that I don’t need to justify watching them based on some sort of hyper-critical assessment of the nominees. Instead, I can simply tell people that I desire to see Ricky Gervais stand in front of a ballroom filled with drunk or almost-drunk celebrities (or celebrities whose sobriety makes them stand out) and ridicule them for three hours. And if anyone actually questions whether that is worth their television viewing time, then I would tend to believe they are even crazier than the Hollywood Foreign Press Association.

However, since I’m going to be watching the show anyways, I figured I should at least remind myself who is nominated, and since I was doing that anyways I figured I should make some predictions on the television side (along with some less-detailed predictions on the film side). So, after the break, we play the fun game of “Guess what the Hollywood Foreign Press Association will do this year!”

No Drama in Drama

If I had to put money on it, I don’t think you’ll see any major surprises in the three drama categories. Mad Men seems a lock to pick up another Globe for Best Drama Series, while the Actress and Actor awards could potentially go to some new blood (my money is on Michael C. Hall and Julianna Margulies) but only in the sense that both have never won a Globe despite multiple nominations. None of these wins would be surprising: no other nominated series has the pedigree to knock off Mad Men (True Blood’s a theoretical spoiler, but I don’t think it’s got enough to win it), and while there’s plenty of talent in the acting categories I think it’s time these two got some deserving (if perhaps more in terms of their past work as opposed to their current nominations) attention from the HFPA.

The Glee Question

I’m tempted to suggest that Glee will not win a single Golden Globe, just because there’s so much talk about the near inevitability of Glee dominating the awards. I recognize that Glee seems like the perfect candidate for the HFPA to latch onto, but I have this feeling that it’s almost too perfect. While I think they’re going to walk away with at least one statue, I’m not sure whether that statue will be in Comedy/Musical Series (in which it is the only Musical), Best Actress (where Lea Michele fits the Globes’ young ingenue mould) or Best Supporting Actress (where the show has its most deserving nominee, not to take anything away from Michele [but, um, taking something away from Matthew Morrison. Sorry, dude]), but I’m convinced it will walk away with one.

The Comedy Conundrum

The issue with Glee is that I think there’s plenty of other candidates to fill in those spots. The Globes could reward Emmy-winner Toni Colette or last year’s Golden Globe winner Tina Fey in the Actress category (not to mention Edie Falco, who won two Globes for the Sopranos), and if they want to reward something new in the Comedy Series category they have Modern Family as another option (along with last year’s winner, 30 Rock, sitting in the wings remaining an awards show powerhouse). In the Actor category, while perennial favourite Alec Baldwin seems like an easy sell, the fact that Thomas Jane is nominated at all makes him a dark horse contender. There’s enough complexity to comedy, with multiple new shows and an entrenched favourite that dominated last year, that suggesting Glee can just run roughshod over them seems short-sighted.

Entirely Incomprehensible

The Supporting Categories are actually pretty solid overall, but they’ve created some really unfair battles on an objective level. How can you decide, for example, between Michael Emerson (who has never been nominated for a Globe before) and Neil Patrick Harris (who was first nominated for HIMYM last year) in the acting category? And, more importantly, how are voters going to handle the presence of both John Lithgow and William Hurt in the category alongside them (we’re ignoring Jeremy Piven)? And when we look to the supporting Actress category, Jane Lynch has been listed as the favourite, but I really don’t know if she can compete with Chloe Sevigny considering that she was by all accounts a lead actress in Big Love’s third season (which obviously caught the HFPA’s attention considering the love for Paxton and the show). Heck, I’d even say that Jane Adams has a shot at this one, considering she and (Thomas) Jane were both nominated.

The Predictions

As noted, these aren’t entirely scientific, but they’re my stab at it. Skipping Miniseries/Movie, as this isn’t meant to be comprehensive. Plus, hint: Grey Gardens (my one hope is that Barrymore beats Lange – let them split the Emmy/Globe combo).

  • TV
    • Drama Series: Mad Men
    • Drama Actress: Julianna Margulies
    • Drama Actor: Michael C. Hall
    • Comedy Series: Glee
    • Comedy Actress: Edie Falco
    • Comedy Actor: Thomas Jane
    • Supporting Actor: Neil Patrick Harris
    • Supporting Actress: Chloe Sevigny
  • Film
    • Best Picture, Drama: Avatar
    • Drama Actress: Carey Mulligan
    • Drama Actor: Jeff Bridges
    • Best Picture, Comedy/Musical: (500) Days of Summer
    • Comedy Actress: Cooking Meryl Streep
    • Comedy Actor: Matt Damon
    • Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique
    • Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz
    • Director: Kathryn Bigelow
    • Original Score: Michael Giacchino
    • Screenplay: Up in the Air
    • Animated Film: Up

1 Comment

Filed under Award Shows

One response to “Team Gervais: Disinterested Predictions for the 2010 Golden Globes

  1. Pretty tough categories. I’m in a contest to see who can get the most guesses right. I’d really like to see Jane Lynch win supporting actress. All of our TV choices are the same (and most film as well), but here are mine:

    Best Picture, Drama: Up In The Air
    Drama Actress: Gabourey Sadibe
    Drama Actor: Jeff Bridges
    Best Picture, Comedy/Musical: (500) Days of Summer
    Comedy Actress: Cooking Meryl Streep
    Comedy Actor: Matt Damon
    Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique
    Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz
    Director: Quentin Tarantino
    Original Score: Karen O and Carter Burwell
    Screenplay: Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell
    Animated Film: Up

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