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Cultural Learnings’ 2008 60th Primetime Emmy Awards Nominations Predictions

When I started my Emmys coverage for this year’s ceremony a while ago, I (as always) had a lot of plans: previews of every category (Got through a lot), reviews of every submitted episode (Almost got through those), and all sorts of other grand schemes that never come to fruition. This is the nature of being a television critic of sorts: you have a lot to say, but balancing it and the rest of your life (See: Watching Television, clearly) can be a bit of a challenge. Let it be known I took most of that free time doing my duty and finally watching shows like The Wire, Six Feet Under and Flight of the Conchords.

However, there’s no way I could possibly procrastinate on writing up my various predictions. Predictions are one of those things that I think about more than I write about (I tried writing more this year, and after a while it petered off). Great sites like AwardsHeaven or Coco at the Movies or TV with Abe keep detailed lists for weeks or months ahead of time updating when the Top 10s come out, but I tend to ruminate a bit more introspectively. We’ll see how that goes this time around, when our access to the Top 10 lists for various categories makes this task easier, yes, but also far more competitive. But, I’m not in it to win it, so to speak; I’m just an Emmy fanatic who enjoys the thrill of participation.

So, without further adieu, my predictions for the nominations for the 60th Primetime Emmy Awards.

Outstanding Drama Series

  • Boston Legal (ABC)
  • Damages (FX)
  • House (FOX)
  • Lost (ABC)
  • Mad Men (AMC)

This is a very hard category to call, and admittedly I’m following my own interests here: there’s every chance of Grey’s Anatomy replacing Lost on this list based on its popularity alone, but something tells me that Lost’s episode submission (The fantastic “The Constant”) will elevate them through. Mad Men and Damages represent the new crop of summer cable hits, while Boston Legal and House should ride baity submission and Hugh Laurie, respectively, to nods.

Lead Actor in a Drama Series

  • James Spader (Boston Legal)
  • Jon Hamm (Mad Men)
  • Michael C. Hall (Dexter)
  • Hugh Laurie (House)
  • Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad)

The first four are pretty much locks: while his show is too bloody to make it into major categories, Hall’s Emmy pedigree and the fantastic nature of his performance should get him the nomination he deserved last year. Meanwhile, “should have won before” Laurie and newcomer and Golden Globe winner Hamm will try to dethrone undefeated Emmy king Spader, and that last slot is up for grabs. I’ve gone with Bryan Cranston’s brave performance in the AMC series, one I need to finish watching at some point (Only got through the opening two episodes). Gabriel Byrne is the other option, but I believe that if Cranston made the Top 10 people were watching, and he would have performed well on the panels.

Lead Actress in a Drama Series

  • Sally Field (Brothers & Sisters)
  • Kyra Sedgwick (The Closer)
  • Holly Hunter (Saving Grace)
  • Glenn Close (Damages)
  • Mary McDonnell (Battlestar Galactica)

Those following the Emmy race will sigh at that last name – while the first four are more or less locks based on name recognition and showy performances, the fifth candidate in this category is somewhat more open. However, with previous nominees like Mariska Hargitay and Minnie Driver waiting in the wings, the chances of an actress from a science fiction series breaking through are slim. However, frak that kind of logical thinking: I want to have hope, for once, that they’ll see through the Science Fiction and discover a tremendous performance that is worthy of consideration.

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Assessing the Contenders: Comedy Series Catchup (Family Guy, FotC, Office)

[As noted yesterday, I’m a bit behind on my pieces on the various episode submissions for the series prizes at the Emmy Awards. With the nominations an exciting week away, I want to try to get through these before the weekend so that my predictions can start on Sunday. So, some catchup is in order (Although I want to write a bit more about three of the remaining shows, all for different reasons).]

Family Guy (FOX)

Episode Submission: “Padre de Famile”

Synopsis: Peter discovers that he isn’t an American citizen, and after embracing his Mexican roots discovers the struggles of the illegal immigrant in modern America. And there’s fart jokes.

My Thoughts: I’ll admit right now that I am not a Family Guy fan – the show does nothing for me, and while I might watch it on occasion I never feel particularly content with what I watch.This episode is exactly the same for me. It has too much vomit, for one thing, and there are times when its jokes just go one step further than they need to.

But the thing is that Family Guy is also extremely funny, and there’s some great gags here. I particularly enjoyed the 25,000 Pyramid sidebar, and there was some great one-liners all over the place. The episode feels grounded in sitcom traditions with a dash of absurdity, and some of the pop culture stuff was more clever than I probably want to give it credit for.

Panel Potential: This is a bit of a wild card, but apparently it went over quite well in the panels. How well is an interesting question, as the episode features a lot of stuff that older viewers won’t get but also some things they will. It’s also a very “laugh-out-loud” kind of episode, taking a pointed social issue and just having a little bit of fun with it. It was more grounded than most Family Guy episodes, which should help it. Still, the animation issue could hold it back with some more traditional voters.

Flight of the Conchords (HBO)

Episode Submission: “Sally Returns”

Synopsis: After former flame Sally re-enters Jermaine and Bret’s life, tensions flare, apartments are rented, and glass butterflies are blown.

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Assessing the Contenders: Lost – “The Constant”

Lost (ABC)

Episode: “The Constant”

During its resurgence in creative vision during the latter portion of its third season, Lost had a number of highpoints. “Flashes Before Your Eyes” was a complex journey into the series’ murky but fascinating science, “Greatest Hits” was a character piece capable of completely changing the audience’s view of Charlie, and “Through the Looking Glass” used the show’s own conventions against itself for one of the most effective season cliffhangers in a long time.

And yet I think “The Constant,” the fifth episode of Lost’s fourth season, is better than all of them.

Now, I don’t make this statement in spite of those other episodes, but rather out of appreciation: “The Constant” borrows all of their various elements but manages to weave them into a single, cohesive hour of television. It is an episode that, although capable of standing on its own outside the context of the series, also represents the various parts which define the series’ high quality. It is what everything was building towards, the kind of episode that a show can only earn with hard work and practice.

And the final product of all of that work is Lost’s Emmy Submission this year, and it might well be the deciding factor in getting the show it’s second nomination or win in the category.
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Assessing the Contenders: Drama Series Catchup (Dexter, FNL, Grey’s, House)

So, last week I was all set to really dig into all of the various submissions that the panels saw in both Comedy and Drama a few weeks ago now, but then life got in the way and I’ve been distracted. It also didn’t help that I had actually seen most of the episode, so I had already formulated opinions and therefore didn’t feel an urgency to write about them (Something I do have when I’m seeing something for the first time). So, I figure I’ll provide some short-form reviews of at least some of the remaining episodes over the next few days, and then offer a more comprehensive overview next week leading up to the nominations themselves. First, a view into the drama contenders.

Drama Series

Dexter – “The Dark Defender”

Synopsis: Dexter, with the help of his similarly crazy friend Lila, confronts his mother’s murderer in an emotional attempt to achieve closure.

My Thoughts: I hate Lila with a fiery passion, and found the character ultimately disruptive, but her role as Dexter’s kindred spirit of sorts was strong. Michael C. Hall is great in the episode, and it displays the show’s usual great use of violence and gore to serve story purposes.

Panel Potential: Unfortunately, its use of blood and gore has been what has held it back, as pretty well all awards potential goes out the window when older voters can’t stomach the show’s bloody reality. So, all signs point to a rough panel performance.

Friday Night Lights – “Leave No Man Behind”

Synopsis: Tension between coach and quarterback reaches its climax, and love triangles and parental strife round out the episode.

My Thoughts: The best episode of the show’s second season, it is most importantly a view into where football and life intersect as opposed to simply the lives of these characters. For the scene where Eric Taylor throws Matt Saracen into a cold shower to wake him up from his depressive state alone, this one’s a winner.

Panel Potential: There’s a lot of strong elements here, from performance to relativity to the standard lives of panelists, so it should have a decent performance (but likely not enough to make up for its poor Popular vote showing).

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Assessing the Contenders: Entourage – “The Day F*ckers”

[As the Top 10 Comedy and Drama series contenders have been released, and since Gold Derby has been kind enough to grab us the episode titles, I’m going through each submission judging its quality and its potential on the panel. As I prepare to write about the second Comedy series in contention, you can check out some great Spy reports gathered by Tom O’Neill and Boomer over at Gold Derby (One, Two & Three).]

Entourage (HBO)

Episode: “The Day F*ckers”

Synopsis: With both lovelorn Eric (Struggling to get over his ex-girlfriend Sloan) and Turtle (Who’s never been very good with dating) in slumps, Vince and Drama turn their rush to get laid in a casual fashion into a contest; meanwhile, Ari (Jeremy Piven) struggles to get his son into a private school despite his poor reputation.

My Thoughts: I’ll let my thoughts back when the episode aired to do a bit of the talking for me, although I’ll break into further analysis after the break.

That’s not to say this was a terrible episode of Entourage; as far as these really light and inconsequential episodes go, this one wasn’t particularly awful. But it just had no purpose: Ari’s storyline has been drawn out and neither funny nor dramatic, Eric’s love life has never been entertaining (Although Sloan remains attractive), and Turtle and Drama’s antics were just as ludicrous as ever. The episode just kind of sat there, not doing anything except advance Eric’s love life that tiny little baby step forward.

And when reading over this, and watching the episode, I have to agree: in context of this race, the episode gets even worse.

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Assessing the Contenders: Boston Legal – “The Court Supreme”

[As the Top 10 Comedy and Drama series contenders have been released, and since Gold Derby has been kind enough to grab us the episode titles, I’m going through each submission judging its quality and its potential on the panel. Here’s the first Drama Series in contention, a nominee last year that looks to return.]

Boston Legal (ABC)

Episode: “The Court Supreme”

Synopsis: Having gained a reputation as a staunch opponent of the death penalthy, Alan Shore (James Spader) is approached by a young attourney whose client, a mentally disabled man from Louisiana convicted of raping a child, is appealing the death penalty at the highest level: the Supreme Court of the United States.

My Thoughts: There’s quite a few who are labeling this episode as Emmy bait, and they would not be wrong. For a show that is never afraid to quite literally throw its politics in the audience’s face, this goes even further than we’re used to. James Spader is likely to pick up his fourth Emmy for his performance here, and the show is more than likely guaranteed a nomination.

That doesn’t, however, mean I liked it.

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Assessing the Emmy Contenders: Curb Your Enthusiasm – “The Bat Mitzvah”

When Emmy released the Top 10 lists of the potential nominees for both comedy and drama series, they took the wind out of my sails in terms of putting up my own predictions. However, their work and the work of Tom O’Neill over at Gold Derby getting the episode submission titles means that interested parties can have their own private screening of the 10 comedy and 10 drama episodes that the blue ribbon panels are viewing this weekend. So, following a suggestion by GoldDerby Forum poster jss0058, I figured I’d offer my thoughts on the submitted episodes in alphabetical order as we approach the July 17th nominations.

First off, two caveats:

  • For the sake of not ruining plot-heavy series, I have no intention of watching the submitted episodes from The Tudors or The Wire. I’m currently on the fence with Flight of the Conchords, but chances are I’ll be fine with it.
  • I probably won’t rewatch some of the episodes that I’ve already reviewed/watched extensively, but I’ll try to at least take a fresh perspective.

And with that out of the way, let’s get onto the first series, Larry David’s improvisational comedy hit that finished off its sixth season late last year.

Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)

Episode: “The Bat Mitzvah” (Directed by Larry David)

Synopsis: Larry (Larry David) has a tickle in his anus, and a rumour spreads that it’s the result of a gerbil finding a way into that particular cavity.

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60th Primetime Emmy Awards Preview: Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Achieving success in the Supporting Actress in a  Comedy Series takes one of three things: having a recognizable name, being on a popular show, or being on a show that has won Emmys in the past.

Now, you’re probably asking yourself why I would take the time to isolate these three categories since they should (by and large) encapsulate 90% of nominees. The reason is that this is a category where there are some great contenders that won’t be recognized in favour of those who are part of the Emmy elite, or part of shows that give them more exposure. I’m not saying that these are not worthy contenders, but rather that there’s a few others who did fantastic work this season who won’t be recognized for it.

Instead, this is a race designed for last year’s contenders: from the surprise winner to the resurgent veteran, all sides are staging a battle that could prove one of the toughest predictions of the night – if only predicting the Top 10 was just as challenging.

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60th Primetime Emmy Awards Preview – Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

If there’s something to say about the Supporting Actor category for comedy series, it’s that it has far too many candidates, largely due to the nature of television comedy. There are just a lot of male comic performers who steal their respective shows, emerging from the spotlight of the “stars” if you will. When there are three of television’s biggest comedies with two contenders each, you know that the competition is going to be extremely difficult.

And yet, when it comes to narrowing the category down to winners, it’s been a bit too predictable in recent years: since 2002, only three people have won the award (Brad Garrett with 3, David Hyde Pierce with his fourth, and Jeremy Piven with two in the last two years). The result is that it’s not the kind of category that really opens itself up to new talent, even when like last year it had it staring in its face with nominations for Rainn Wilson, Kevin Dillon and Neil Patrick Harris.

But the hope is that history won’t repeat itself: with 30 Rock emerging with a few new candidates, a breakthrough comic role for a drama specialist, and a few fringe contenders, Piven’s reign might just be over as Emmy voters decide to go with something fresh and new. Or, if I know Emmy voters, Piven will walk with his third trophy, not undeservedly but unfortunately.

[Sorry for advance for a lack of YouTube links: Entourage clips are limited and NBC is uppity about clips thanks to Hulu, which I’d use if I could access it from Canada. My apologies!]

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Emmy Awards Preview – Nominee Analysis: Pushing Daisies

Of the new shows which premiered in fall network lineups in 2007, there’s only really one that expects to make a big splash at the Emmy Awards. While plenty of new shows will be highly competitive, they debuted in the summer on cable networks where much of the season’s quality came from. Between the strike and a fairly mediocre development season, the freshman lineup of the networks just didn’t measure up…except for Pushing Daisies.

It was the most-buzzed about pilot for a lot of reasons, from its witty writting to its fanciful direction to its lead and supporting stars. While the show only aired nine episodes before going off the air due to the strike, and won’t be returning until the Fall, the show still made a fairly big splash with critics and viewers, and was nominated for a handful for Golden Globes earlier this year.

But translating that to Emmy success will be difficult, not the least of which because comedy is an intense set of categories this year and because the show has been off the air for six months. Considering that so many networks basically gave up on a lot of their freshman lineups, I think that the general perception did the same: while the pilot’s strength in technical categories and for Bryan Fuller and Barry Sonnenfeld is likely to shine through, whether the show’s extremely talented actors can do the same remains a big question. But if the submissions are strong, perhaps there is hope yet for the little pie shop that could.

Outstanding Comedy Series

Submission: “Pie-Lette”

The reasons you need to submit the pilot episode for a show like Pushing Daisies are numerous: not only is it the show with the biggest budget and therefore the strongest effects work, but it also feels the most like a small, contained story. While ABC ensured that every episode opened with a detailed sequence explaining the complicated life/death sequences of the show, “Pie-Lette” is without question where it has the most resonance as he makes the decision to bring his childhood sweetheart back to life. Part of me wishes that the episode had more for the supporting players to do, but this is about selling this sweet and charming show first and foremost, and the pilot certainly does the best job of this.

YouTube: The Opening of the Pie-Lette

Chances: The show is a strong competitor in this category due to its hour-long running time and a very showy episode submission, plus it’s definitely the biggest new comedy if they’re looking for something new.

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