Last year, during this important period of the pre-Emmy festivities, I had a bit more time to really delve into some key issues. This year, things are busier, but that doesn’t mean that I’m not going to make some prognostications about the end results. I’m going to be discussing more themes and the like tomorrow in my Emmy Preview, but for now let’s get to what we really care about: predicting who is actually going to walk home with Emmy Awards.
Outstanding Drama Series
- Boston Legal (ABC)
- Damages (FX)
- Dexter (Showtime)
- House (FOX)
- Lost (ABC)
- Mad Men (AMC)
There is some wiggle room here, as each some has something (Pedigree, viewership, buzz, etc.) that makes it stand out, but there is nothing on this list quite as emphatically received and, more importantly, different from your standard fare than Mad Men. I’ll discuss more of this tomorrow, but its combination of a small network, a small fanbase, fresh-faced actors and its attention to detail will be unstoppable.
Lead Actor in a Drama Series
- James Spader (Boston Legal)
- Jon Hamm (Mad Men)
- Michael C. Hall (Dexter)
- Hugh Laurie (House)
- Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad)
- Gabriel Byrne (In Treatment)
This is a category where only one thing is important: that James Spader finally loses. Either Hamm, C. Hall or Laurie are in a position to usurp last year’s winner, and I’ve got my money on Michael C. Hall. After getting snubbed here last year, and with his show in the big race, voters might choose to recognize his brave and fantastic performance even when the show itself loses them with its dark atmosphere. But, this is maybe the night’s most up in the air race.
Lead Actress in a Drama Series
- Sally Field (Brothers & Sisters)
- Kyra Sedgwick (The Closer)
- Holly Hunter (Saving Grace)
- Glenn Close (Damages)
- Mariska Hargitay (Law and Order: SVU)
This race, however, is not up in the air at all. Its highly serialized nature and red herring use might keep it from being the best drama series on television, but there is no way that Emmy Voters can ignore Close’s pedigree with such a richly portrayed character (even if I’d argue that character isn’t nearly as important as voters might think it is to the show’s success).
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